2024 HD orders / status

Leonardo Willi · July 2, 2023

One constant between all majors, regardless of what equipment or products they build, they aren't losing money and profits are built into the system.

Pryme · July 2, 2023

9 hours ago, 64BAwagon said:

I could not disagree with you more on this. The supply chain was thrown into chaos with the shutdowns and its not going to recover anytime soon. Its a complex issue with a lot of political overtones so I will avoid that part of it here.

If they were purposely trying to keep supply down why would they be running 3 shift with tons of overtime in Flint ?

They could accomplish the exact same thing by going back to 5 day a week production and no OT.

This is a desirable new model with a demand that was pent up for 3 yrs. My truck came in 3 months, my previous trucks took around 2 months. Thats not exactly a huge hit.

Having “low supply” creates a buying frenzy. It’s an old tactic and is being applied now in all sorts of ways.

Remember when it was just “chips” now it has to become more vague so it’s now “supply chains” causing it all.

makes it harder to pinpoint the bullshit.

Jettech1 · July 2, 2023

32 minutes ago, Pryme said:

Having “low supply” creates a buying frenzy. It’s an old tactic and is being applied now in all sorts of ways.

Remember when it was just “chips” now it has to become more vague so it’s now “supply chains” causing it all.

makes it harder to pinpoint the bullshit.

Kind of sounds like oil doesn't it?

Pryme · July 3, 2023

2 hours ago, Jettech1 said:

Kind of sounds like oil doesn't it?

Absolutely. It’s funny how gas prices dip before major holidays to encourage more travel. Total scam as well.

Jettech1 · July 3, 2023

14 minutes ago, Pryme said:

Absolutely. It’s funny how gas prices dip before major holidays to encourage more travel. Total scam as well.

And who controls what??? We are the controlled ones...we are at their mercy. We have no choice to just grab our ankles and pay what needs to be paid.

Leonardo Willi · July 3, 2023

44 minutes ago, Jettech1 said:

And who controls what??? We are the controlled ones...we are at their mercy. We have no choice to just grab our ankles and pay what needs to be paid.

I look at it like this, being of a certain vintage where coming of age and entering the world with bright eyes and wonder, during the 80's for me. It's a bell curve. We're young, ambitious, creative critical thinkers. We question the system but become a piece of it because it's in our best interest. Doesn't mean we don't care because we do but we come to realize what our actual super powers are and become at peace with a body of work quantifying what we've accomplished. Now on the other side of the bell wisdom has replaced naivety and accept and embrace, the most simple, perfect and all encompassing path to positivity. the "Serenity Prayer" ~ Or we don't and waste energy that could be focused elswhere.

I sold green and yellow tractors. I went from order to delivery 6 months normally. But you had to order them in a specific ordering window once a year, which lasted 6 to 8 weeks, just depended on what. Then, commodity prices went up, farmers had money, ordering was hot, then covid hit - 6 months went to 12-18 months, no guarantees, no price locking. "Give us an order (which is legally binding - but total BS threat) We'll build it when or if and we'll know the price when it's ready" that is almost an exact quote. Prices were going in 5-7% jumps. That's a lot of jack on $3-400k - and my point of all this is, JD stocks did not go down through all of it as a whole. Had this happen before when economy took a dump, early 20-teens right after a boom. Stocks went up.

Yep, it's a lot of hard to swallow fact, but there's a lot worse things could end up in your mouth ~ that's glass half full

Edited July 3, 2023 by Leonardo Willi

Jettech1 · July 3, 2023

4 minutes ago, Leonardo Willi said:

I look at it like this, being of a certain vintage where coming of age and entering the world with bright eyes and wonder, during the 80's for me. It's a bell curve. We're young, ambitious, creative critical thinkers. We question the system but become a piece of it because it's in our best interest. Doesn't mean we don't care because we do but we come to realize what our actual super powers are and become at peace with a body of work quantifying what we've accomplished. Now on the other side of the bell wisdom has replaced naivety and accept and embrace, the most simple, perfect and all encompassing path to positivity.

So embrace the quaint yet profound totality of the "Serenity Prayer" ~

I sold green and yellow tractors. I went from order to delivery 6 months normally. But you had to order them in a specific ordering window once a year, which lasted 6 to 8 weeks, just depended on what. Then, commodity prices went up, farmers had money, ordering was hot, then covid hit - 6 months went to 12-18 months, no guarantees, no price locking. "Give us an order (which is legally binding - but total BS threat) We'll build it when or if and we'll know the price when it's ready" that is almost an exact quote. Prices were going in 5-7% jumps. That's a lot of jack on $3-400k - and my point of all this is, JD stocks did not go down through all of it as a whole. Had this happen before when economy took a dump, early 20-teens right after a boom. Stocks went up.

Yep, it's a lot of hard to swallow fact, but there's a lot worse things could end up in your mouth ~ that's glass half full

Very interesting read sir. I couldn't agree more.

Leonardo Willi · July 3, 2023

I edited it, a little smoother, same thing simpler. IDK man, I was catching up, reading through everyones thoughts and there's times sht just hits me a certain way, sht comes out.

I found that falling back on this kind of approach is what got me through my long wait for the truck. And all said and done, I've found supporting data to say, it was worth the wait and I prospered from it, which actually happened in my case. All that doesn't mean it didn't suck waiting 19 months, because of course it was a f'n roller coaster. But, like all roller coasters they eventually roll into the house on the brakes

Jettech1 · July 3, 2023

4 minutes ago, Leonardo Willi said:

I edited it, a little smoother, same thing simpler. IDK man, I was catching up, reading through everyones thoughts and there's times sht just hits me a certain way, sht comes out.

I found that falling back on this kind of approach is what got me through my long wait for the truck. And all said and done, I've found supporting data to say, it was worth the wait and I prospered from it, which actually happened in my case. All that doesn't mean it didn't suck waiting 19 months, because of course it was a f'n roller coaster. But, like all roller coasters they eventually roll into the house on the brakes

I love to hear others thoughts and concerns...It's life. We are lucky to be living it right now.

64BAwagon · July 3, 2023

14 hours ago, Pryme said:

Having “low supply” creates a buying frenzy. It’s an old tactic and is being applied now in all sorts of ways.

Remember when it was just “chips” now it has to become more vague so it’s now “supply chains” causing it all.

makes it harder to pinpoint the bullshit.

Its not "vague" at all. I live in the middle of all this. Just because GM doesnt publicly announce every time a supplier stumbles doesnt mean its not a reality. They are still having to build short on some trucks, that coupled with transportation issues can cause delays. The fact that the Flint plant has been working 3 shifts and O.T. for quite some time along with Oshawa coming on line for relief is in direct contradiction of your claim.

I think a lot of the problems come from sketchy dealers that make promises they cant keep or they delay certain deals to move more profitable ones to the front. Although GM is by no means a saint they dont control the day to day business of their dealers.

Pryme · July 3, 2023

5 hours ago, 64BAwagon said:

Its not "vague" at all. I live in the middle of all this. Just because GM doesnt publicly announce every time a supplier stumbles doesnt mean its not a reality. They are still having to build short on some trucks, that coupled with transportation issues can cause delays. The fact that the Flint plant has been working 3 shifts and O.T. for quite some time along with Oshawa coming on line for relief is in direct contradiction of your claim.

I think a lot of the problems come from sketchy dealers that make promises they cant keep or they delay certain deals to move more profitable ones to the front. Although GM is by no means a saint they dont control the day to day business of their dealers.

It is vague. Like I said, first it was microchips. Now it’s just magically transitioned into everything.

Sure, they are building tons of trucks, and they are sitting in all those lots and due to the manufactured shortages, they cause people to run out and put an order in. So yes, they are working to build trucks. It’s not the first time they have worked 3 shifts and OT and it won’t be the last. The difference is the business model has shifted to what we see now.

Businesses got fat on the hog and got to blame everything on the flu for 3+years. That’s no longer a crutch to lean on so I guess we will all see how this plays out in the years to come.