Coronavirus

[riverbanks]

New problem,too much time together

[Texas Daddy]

People die in hospitals every day, all day long. Not surprised to see a nyc hospital over run according to ny times; that yellow journalism rag changes headlines to influence opinion - I soooo miss journalistic integrity. They said they were short on supplies well before the outbreak btw. The German death rate now is 0.4% since they do mass RANDOM testing, not the crackpot CDC/Italian `just test the sickest' philosophy (I could show you 99mpg on my burb if I took a small enough sample). They need to fire everyone at the CDC for this quackery, and strip their medical credentials. Open up the small businesses - its not fair when so many `essential` things are open allowing spread. Small businesses can limit exposure just as well...

 

[Grumpy Bear]

4 hours ago, KARNUT said:

 As usual some people who feel their way is rejected or challenged resort to insults and name calling. Usually lefties. Name calling behind the screen, brave. So you all have fun. Not fun for me anymore. I’m retired, I’m only interested in fun. I’m out of here.


 

And who called you what name? Guess I missed that. 

[mookdoc6]

I am pragmatic so I really look at both sides....Scientific Facts and Substantial Data along with little sips of Kool-aid along the way.

[Colossus]

More people die every day from auto related accidents then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from Cancer then do those from the virus.  More people die everyday from natural causes then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from Murder, then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from heart attacks then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from the FLU then do those from the virus. More people die everyday from hunger then do those from the virus.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Colossus

[davester]

4 minutes ago, Colossus said:

More people die every day from auto related accidents then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from Cancer then do those from the virus.  More people die everyday from natural causes then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from Murder, then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from heart attacks then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from the FLU then do those from the virus. More people die everyday from hunger then do those from the virus.

First, your murders/people go hunger points are irrelevant.

 

Second, all the other ones, those people in the US get access to health care that give them a chance at living, if it's possible and mostly even if they don't have a lot of money.  This social distancing is about giving the system enough time, and reducing the peak number of  people at one time that get COVID19, so those people that do get it and need hospitalization, can get access to health care that give them a chance at living.  And so everyone else that don't have COVID19, but happen to have cancer, or get in an accident, or have some other health problem, also can get access to health care, and it's not just "Sorry, try another hospital, maybe they can help you".

[Grumpy Bear]

3 minutes ago, Colossus said:

More people die every day from auto related accidents then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from Cancer then do those from the virus.  More people die everyday from natural causes then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from Murder, then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from heart attacks then do those from the virus.  More people die every day from the FLU then do those from the virus. More people die everyday from hunger then do those from the virus.

Oh it's early yet to call this one. In 1918/19 the Spanish flu infected 2 of every 3 people on earth. At 600K in a sea of 7.8 Billion, we are just getting started. Let's see what it looks like when 5 Billion people have been infected and 1% MR is 50 million dead. 

 

Right now, you're looking at the first pitch and calling the game.

 

Hope is, if we do as they ask it will never get that bad.

 

I can't believe I'm quoting a Pope.

Freedom consists not in doing what we like, but in having the right to do what we ought.

 

 

 

[CamGTP]

How come nobody (unless I missed it) has said that we will never know the true number of recovered cases and adding to that how long it takes for everyone to recover. People that tested positive   ( who aren't in the hospital) aren't going to get a new test done in 14-21 days. Test kit supplies would completely tank if they did that.

 

So the number of recovered cases in the media will be dwarfed by the number of positive cases. All someone can do is assume the number of recovered cases is way higher than it really is but with how some people take in new and react to it, they will continue to freak out.

 

What I wanted to say here sounded better out loud and in my head that trying to type it on my keyboard.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by CamGTP

[Grumpy Bear]

4 hours ago, CamGTP said:

How come nobody (unless I missed it) has said that we will never know the true number of recovered cases and adding to that how long it takes for everyone to recover. People that tested positive   ( who aren't in the hospital) aren't going to get a new test done in 14-21 days. Test kit supplies would completely tank if they did that.

 

So the number of recovered cases in the media will be dwarfed by the number of positive cases. All someone can do is assume the number of recovered cases is way higher than it really is but with how some people take in new and react to it, they will continue to freak out.

 

What I wanted to say here sounded better out loud and in my head that trying to type it on my keyboard.

 

 

That happens to us all Cameron  

 

We have those that doubt the number of confirmed cases. W are going to have those that doubt the recovered cases. Anyone wish to cast some dispersion of the number of dead? Is this going to be a 'we didn't really go to the moon' thing? 

 

Here's a thought. This thing is so horrific that nobody wants to believe it's even happening. People are scarred and with good reason. But guys it's hard to wash the taste of fear out of ones mouth with doubt. We WANT normal and resent it being taken from us by something we can't shoot, strangle or yell at. 

 

We are getting all wishy-washy and confused. We compare this with that. We doubt the data of this one while holding past data in reverence then spin and say the old data was inaccurate when we need it to be to support some other view. It's a government plot. It's some countries fault. It isn't happening. What it is, is scary stuff. 

 

You don't need to be 100% accurate with stats to be 99.7% right. Stats look at samples of populations to look at that populations unknowns and make them known to a high degree of certainty. What you do have to get right is looking at the right data SETS. Look at the kennel and not one box of puppies in the kennel if the kennel is what you want to know something of. (refereeing to an earlier post). Look in the box if it's a box issue. The very idea that the result is tied to a probability allows for bad data and still gives a USEFUL picture even it isn't dead on. Stats are the difference between reason and gambling. It's why card counters get the bump when caught.

 

Your standing on the beach and the tide goes out a thousand feet in a minute. Everyone knows it's a tsunami but instead of heading for high ground and because we have a house on the beach we want to argue how many feet out is a tsunami and not just an anomaly in the tides?  Others wish to stand there and ignore it because of the economic disaster it will have if we don't. Some want to stack bodies on the beach and hope it will lessen the impact. Is any of this rational?

 

The tide is STILL going out on this one. It isn't just about over. It's just getting started. Be rational everybody. Be safe.  

[Cpl_Punishment]

4 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

That happens to us all Cameron  

 

We have those that doubt the number of confirmed cases. W are going to have those that doubt the recovered cases. Anyone wish to cast some dispersion of the number of dead? Is this going to be a 'we didn't really go to the moon' thing? 

 

Here's a thought. This thing is so horrific that nobody wants to believe it's even happening. People are scarred and with good reason. But guys it's hard to wash the taste of fear out of ones mouth with doubt. We WANT normal and resent it being taken from us by something we can't shoot, strangle or yell at. 

 

We are getting all wishy-washy and confused. We compare this with that. We doubt the data of this one while holding past data in reverence then spin and say the old data was inaccurate when we need it to be to support some other view. It's a government plot. It's some countries fault. It isn't happening. What it is, is scary stuff. 

 

You don't need to be 100% accurate with stats to be 99.7% right. Stats look at samples of populations to look at that populations unknowns and make them known to a high degree of certainty. What you do have to get right is looking at the right data SETS. Look at the kennel and not one box of puppies in the kennel if the kennel is what you want to know something of. (refereeing to an earlier post). Look in the box if it's a box issue. The very idea that the result is tied to a probability allows for bad data and still gives a USEFUL picture even it isn't dead on. Stats are the difference between reason and gambling. It's why card counters get the bump when caught.

 

Your standing on the beach and the tide goes out a thousand feet in a minute. Everyone knows it's a tsunami but instead of heading for high ground and because we have a house on the beach we want to argue how many feet out is a tsunami and not just an anomaly in the tides?  Others wish to stand there and ignore it because of the economic disaster it will have if we don't. Some want to stack bodies on the beach and hope it will lessen the impact. Is any of this rational?

 

The tide is STILL going out on this one. It isn't just about over. It's just getting started. Be rational everybody. Be safe.  

What I'm hearing you say is one of my favourite quotes: all models are wrong but some are useful. 

[Cpl_Punishment]

These articles are about 10 days old but well written with lots of data. 

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[Likarok]

Some folks on hear need to mellow out a bit. lol Hopefully we are all learning from this mess.

 

I think we can all agree on one thing, that none of our Government organizers were prepared for a massive disease outbreak like what we are going through now. But I hope they are paying attention because in the future, experts say we will see more super bugs like this. That being said this one is just stupidity, Thank god in most of the civilized world our food supply is safe and we don't have to resort to eating the crap that they eat in China that started this whole mess. 

[SnakeEyeSS]

Not sure how many have seen this, but really puts a LOT of perspective into the fear over death rate. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[Dunn]

On 3/12/2020 at 7:07 AM, diyer2 said:

 

I stopped watching news about 15 years ago and don't regret it one bit

[Dunn]

On 3/27/2020 at 6:19 AM, Silverado4x4 said:

I just want to start seeing the media post case that people came out ok after the virus but they wont due to it being good news. But I think the people that got it 98% are ok and the other already had problems to begin with just like the flu does. Iam getting tired of all this bullshit screw all you people that think the world is coming to an end and open the country up and lets get back to work.

 

I think a lot of this is political and with Trump hating the media there never going to report good news in his favor. Its going to come to a time when people in the US are going to get fed up with all this and start doing what they use to do.

it is amazing how screwed up thing has gotten.....truly amazing

 

chinas stats are so friggen far off but if the media says so it must be true, lol

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dunn