Coronavirus

Grumpy Bear · July 20, 2020

Oh baby, context IS everything.

:crazy:

This is certainly a vastly different picture and the situation everyone is attempting to avoid.

9 minutes ago, mikemcclain8 said:

Here you go Grumpy! Thanks Mike!

OnTheReel · July 20, 2020

1 minute ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Oh baby, context IS everything.

This is certainly a vastly different picture and the situation everyone is attempting to avoid.

Again, that chart would look more or less the same with or without Covid. I shared the whole link, I am not trying to hide it.

It’s simply not relevant to Covid-19 and not specific to Covid-19.

Read the other study I posted. ICU occupancy is always above 60%. There’s the context. No one would care about that graph any other year, even though it would have the same exact numbers in it.

Grumpy Bear · July 20, 2020

3 minutes ago, OnTheReel said:

They do not have a chart showing ICU beds specifically as it pertains to Covid-19 patients. As a whole, the ICU is 61% occupied, which is...normal?

If one feels that being at 61% capacity means the majority of ICUs are “near maximum”...you could have made the exact same argument last year, ten years ago, etc. Percentage is always in the 60s, even without Covid-19.

I grant there are hotspots that are damn near full or full. Doesn’t change that the statement: “the majority of ICUs are near maximum” posted in a coronavirus thread is not only inaccurate, but it implies the ICUs are full of Covid patients.

https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-hospital-icus-crowded-with-covid-19-patients-as-coronavirus-continues-to-spread/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680

Only 27% are Covid patients. So if there was a graph showing Covid ICU patients, we can extrapolate that it would look close to the inpatient graph by the numbers. Hotspots in red, rest of the country in blue.

Also notable, Houston would be above average in ICU patients even without Covid.

True. Everything you said here is true. Now does it matter to the COVID patient needing an ICU bed how many of like kind are filling those other beds if he can't get one? Five states near capacity by the chart Mike shared. While far from 'the majority'.... well there are some places that just don't seem good vacation spots right now.....

OnTheReel · July 20, 2020

Just now, Grumpy Bear said:

True. Everything you said here is true. Now does it matter to the COVID patient needing an ICU bed how many of like kind are filling those other beds if he can't get one? Five states near capacity by the chart Mike shared. While far from 'the majority'.... well there are some places that just don't seem good vacation spots right now.....

I completely agree. Also, I shouldn’t have said it’s not relevant to Covid-19, it is. The chart was just not specific.

My point was when someone says the numbers can’t be fudged, they shouldn’t then proceed to fudge the numbers in the same sentence. The distrust in the media many have originates from this very type of act.

Ithan Henry · July 20, 2020

1 hour ago, KARNUT said:

I have idea for schools. Go year round. Go two weeks, stop for three. Tests, modify, repeat. Don’t want to go, don’t, home school.

I want year round schooling. It would solve the problem of learning gaps created by summer break. And it would help make social distancing in schools easier by spreading out the year.

Grumpy Bear · July 20, 2020

We are almost running over each other. I'm going to need one of those beds. Your point is well made.

With out fudging I think I can safely say this. In no year prior to 2019 has there been a COVID-19 death in the USA. Hence no information prior would contain COVID-19 data. Thus deaths prior can be assessed to anything but COVID-19.

There have been two years in US history, 1918 (H1N1 675 K US only) and 1957 (H2N2 116K) where death tolls exceeded 100 K. In the last 9 flu seasons the worst season took 61 K lives. The nine year average however is but 37 K

We are now at 143 K (Google) by my last look. Over double the worst in the last ten years and about four times the nine year average and second in US history!

Now I can't tell you how many of the current 143,000 dead are COVID-19 but I can look at history and say it isn't just significant, it's eye popping and no amount of down playing will make any rational sense. Just statistical history says between 1/2 and 3/4 of this current seasons deaths are COVID-19.

They don't back up refrigeration trucks for a bad flu season.

And then there is this. There isn't a vaccine and there is no effective treatment.

An abundance of caution is warranted IMHO

18 minutes ago, OnTheReel said:

I completely agree. Also, I shouldn’t have said it’s not relevant to Covid-19, it is. The chart was just not specific.

My point was when someone says the numbers can’t be fudged, they shouldn’t then proceed to fudge the numbers in the same sentence. The distrust in the media many have originates from this very type of act.

KARNUT · July 20, 2020

I want year round schooling. It would solve the problem of learning gaps created by summer break. And it would help make social distancing in schools easier by spreading out the year.

Take one farther, split sessions. That would mean smaller class sizes. Just teach kids basics for now to limit the school day. Gives them a routine and time with friends. And parents a break.

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KARNUT · July 20, 2020

Someone somewhere said they don’t being refer trucks for a bad flu season. How do they know? This is the first time anyone made much of a fuss. Even with the bird flu the first round was bad. Then it faded away. The reason. The older generation had herd immunity. It did look bad at first. Not much fuss was made. It was a different president.

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The Zip · July 20, 2020

Allow a lead guy on this pandemic to be shut down from giving national briefs with the task force only to bring him back? Dr Fauci will be allowed to restart corona virus briefs on national network TV tomorrow.

Some in American government believed by not allowing this guy to make network briefs that the virus would have been gone by now, right. More Americans trust what he has to say about the virus versus the American government, has to be charts somewhere. Dysfunction.

Thejet07 · July 20, 2020

Name one success of his.

On another note, I’m curious to know how many people with the common cold tested positive for corona.

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OnTheReel · July 20, 2020

On 7/18/2020 at 5:15 PM, The Zip said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/18/texas-babies-coronavirus-nueces-county/

This will be challenged on this thread, but doesn't matter at this point, just info. 85 infants in a Texas county as reported by the Texas Tribune tested positive for covid. One under 6 months died. If the report is true, kids may be the next shoe to drop in the country.

Just to touch base on this again, this was clarified later on that it was a cumulative total since March. The early reports were worded in a way that made it appear as though kids might be the next shoe to drop...as if there was a recent, massive outbreak among babies.

But like so much of news it was a half truth. Article in link was quietly updated to add in “since March”...there’s that darn context once again.

Not picking on you, every media source took this story and ran. Just another example of what I’ve been talking about. The damage is done by the time the real story comes out. How many people are still thinking that babies are being infected en masse off the initial take of the article? Too many.

Grumpy Bear · July 20, 2020

Proverbs 14:16

The wise one is cautious and turns away from evil,

But the stupid one is reckless and overconfident.

The author made this point several times in Proverbs. Must have thought it worth repeating. Me too.

The Zip · July 20, 2020

1 hour ago, Thejet07 said:

Name one success of his.

It's all about the optics now. Don't want to put the cart before the horse though, the brief tomorrow is just scheduled and subject to change.

However, if no successes are what the government thought, optics would be the main reason to allow him to give briefs with the task force again.

The Zip · July 20, 2020

According California governor just now, the state numbers are still not good, but "overall" dropped by almost a percentage point over a rolling "14 day period".

Thejet07 · July 20, 2020

It's all about the optics now. Don't want to put the cart before the horse though, the brief tomorrow is just scheduled and subject to change.

However, if no successes are what the government thought, optics would be the main reason to allow him to give briefs with the task force again.

Speaking personally, if I’m looking for a doctor I look at their success rate. I recently had back surgery. Luckily I live near nyc and was able to go to the top hospital and top doctor. However, in any case I feel that’s what most if possible would want to do. Dr. Fauci is a political hack in the medical world.

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